Rajat Sharma’s Blog | The war will not end soon, but a ceasefire is possible

India got relief today when Iran allowed Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar spoke three times to Iran’s Foreign Minister Syed Abbas Argchi, after which this announcement was made. Iran has not allowed oil tankers from America, Europe and Israel to pass through the strait. On Thursday, the price of crude oil in the international market crossed 100 dollars. Iran attacks two oil tankers in Iraq with explosives-laden boats. On Tuesday, America destroyed 16 mine-laying ships of Iran.

Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries continue. Iran attacked a container ship in Dubai, opened fire near Bahrain airport and launched a drone attack on a Saudi Arabian oil base. After Iran’s attack in Hasra, Iraq, all operations at the oil terminal are at a standstill. On Thursday, Iran attacked Jerusalem with missiles.

Iranian President Masoud Pezashkian has set three conditions to stop the war. One, Iran should be compensated for the war, America should guarantee not to attack in the future and Iran’s legitimate rights should be recognized.

Today is the 13th day of the war and there is panic in the Gulf countries. Before the attacks by Iran, these countries were considered safe. Cities like Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi were branded as the safest, most luxurious cities. When taxes on big Indian industrialists were increased in London, many billionaires made Dubai their home but the bombing of Iran destroyed this image of Dubai. Now Indian billionaires are leaving Dubai and either running to Europe or coming to India.

There is no shortage of LPG for domestic use in India, but there is a problem in the supply of LPG cylinders for commercial use. This has had a bad impact on the hotel industry. From UP and Delhi to Punjab and Maharashtra, thousands of small restaurants and hotels are on the verge of closure. Those running hotels and dhabas have been most affected.

The government has formed a committee of three ministers under the chairmanship of Home Minister Amit Shah, which includes Foreign Minister Jaishankar and Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, to monitor the supply of LPG and oil. At present, the impact of government steps is less visible on the ground. Hotel owners complain that they are not getting the cylinders on time and the gas agencies are doing black marketing. In the South Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala, hotels and restaurants are on the verge of closure due to shortage in the supply of commercial cylinders.

It is true that at present there is no shortage of oil or gas. The government has said that there is sufficient stock of gas and oil. It has also been told that more gas is being brought from outside. But the market of rumors is hot. That is why panic buying is taking place. Anyway, rumors spread very fast in our country. People also believe them easily. I also remember the day when the rumor spread that the idol of Lord Ganesha had started drinking milk. By evening, people of Indian origin living in Hong Kong and California were also seen feeding milk to the idol of Lord Ganesha.

Now is the era of social media and AI. It is difficult to differentiate between truth and lie but people should see the record of crisis management of Narendra Modi government. From the dark times of Corona to the food crisis, every time the Modi government made advance preparations and prevented the crisis before it came, that is why there is no need for panic or fear.

Right now no one knows when the war will stop. US President Donald Trump is saying that the war will end soon because there is no place left for the US Army to bomb. Trump has even said that the war will end whenever he wants. It’s impossible to know what Trump wants.

On Monday, Trump had said that this war will end very soon. In response, Iran had said that America has started the war, we will decide when it will end. Two days ago, Trump had said that the war will continue until Iran surrenders unconditionally. The question is that if Hamas has not surrendered even after two years of Israeli bombing, then how can Iran be expected to surrender?

Iran has said that if America continues the attacks, it will not allow even a liter of oil to go out of the Gulf. Trump and the whole of Europe are troubled by the rising oil prices, but there is also pressure on Trump to stop the war. They may say that we have caused a lot of damage to Iran. No need to kill anymore.

Iran will also get a chance to heal its wounds and can stop attacks on neighboring countries. But this ceasefire will be temporary. This will not be the end of the war, it will be a ceasefire. (Rajat Sharma)

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