Rajat Sharma’s Blog | War at dangerous juncture: ceasefire, talks the only way

As the war entered its third week, Israel again bombed Tehran on Friday, while Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the Emirates and Kuwait. The war has now reached a dangerous point. The news that put the whole world in trouble came a day before. Iran destroyed Qatar’s largest natural gas production plant.

Twenty percent of the gas supplied to European countries is from Qatar itself. China, South Korea, Japan, Italy and Singapore are also major buyers of Qatar’s gas. Iran targeted gas and oil facilities in Qatar as well as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Due to this, the supply of crude oil and natural gas has been affected all over the world. Stock markets around the world fell. Bombay Stock Exchange fell about two and a half thousand points. This was the biggest decline in the last two years. There was a huge fall in the prices of gold and silver. The crisis of recession started deepening all over the world.

The entire world was shaken by these attacks by Iran. In fact, a day earlier, Israel had attacked the world’s largest gas field South Pars in Iran, due to which the production and supply of gas there stopped. In response, Iran attacked Qatar’s largest gas plant. Part of the South Pars gas field is in Iran and part in Qatar. The part which is in Iran is called South Pars. The part of this gas field which is in Qatar is called North Dome.

Connected to the North Dome is Qatar’s largest gas plant, Ras Laffan. Late on Wednesday night, Iran fired several missiles one after the other at the same plant, causing a massive fire in the gas plant. Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters and Ras Laffan is not only its largest but the world’s largest LNG plant.

This attack by Iran will also affect India because India imports 55 percent of its requirement of LNG. Of this, 47 percent of LNG comes from Qatar alone. 20 percent of LNG supply to European countries comes from Qatar. China, South Korea, Japan, Italy and Singapore are also big buyers of Qatar’s gas. As soon as Qatar announced the closure of Ras Laffan gas plant after Iran’s attack, there was an uproar in the whole world. There were fears of a recession in European countries and fears of a brake on the economic development of Asia and Africa.

Israel attacked South Pars, the world’s largest gas field in Iran, in response to which Iran attacked Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, Iraq and Israel with missiles and drones. Iran fired missiles at a large oil dump in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. This oil dump is run by Saudi Arabia’s Aramco company. From here fuel is supplied to American fighter jets. That’s why Iran targeted this oil dump. But Iran’s biggest attack on Saudi Arabia was on the Samref oil refinery near Yanbu Port on the Red Sea. This refinery is important at this time because tankers carrying oil from here do not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. These tankers transport Saudi Arabia’s oil to other countries of the world via the Red Sea.

Samref oil refinery is jointly run by Saudi company Aramco and America’s ExxonMobil. That is why Iran attacked Yanbu Port. The attack caused a fire in the refinery and Saudi Arabia announced the closure of the refinery. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter. At the beginning of the war, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s largest oil field, Ras Tanura, after which Saudi Arabia increased oil exports through the East-West Pipeline to avoid the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran launched missile and drone attacks on two refineries in Kuwait, another major oil exporter in the Middle East. Al Ahmadi Port Refinery was targeted by a ballistic missile. This is one of the largest refineries in the Middle East. Another Kuwait refinery near Abdullah Port was attacked by drones. Kuwait halted oil production after attacks on two refineries. Iran caused considerable damage to the joint airbase of the Emirates and America in Dubai. The impact of these attacks by Iran will be on the whole world and will last for a long time.

This stance of Iran has created panic in the Arab world. Arab countries have warned Iran to be prepared to face dangerous consequences. The question is that despite so much devastation, why does Iran want to prolong this war? Iran’s military and political leadership is almost destroyed. The entire intelligence system along with the Navy and Air Force was destroyed but Iran did not stop the attacks with missiles and drones. The reason for this is that now Iran has nothing left to lose. Iran had already prepared for a long war. He decentralized his Revolutionary Guard Corps and continued attacking countries in the Middle East.

The countries of the Middle East put pressure on America. America now wants a ceasefire but Iran wants a permanent solution, not a ceasefire. Iran feels that if the war stops, its enemies will get a chance to regroup, correct their shortcomings, for example, restart the radars that have been destroyed, and then attack Iran. That is why Iran now wants a solution in which America and Israel do not carry out such attacks again.

Iran also wants to use this crisis to improve its economic situation, such as Iran does not want to bring the Strait of Hormuz back to its pre-war situation. He wants a new treaty that would allow him to collect tolls from every ship passing through Hormuz. In fact, Iran is trying to take full advantage of America’s helplessness trapped in the maze. That is why they are maintaining complete pressure on the Gulf countries by continuously attacking them with missiles and drones. Iran did not change its stance suddenly. He had already planned to target Arab and Islamic countries in the month of Ramadan. Israel also gave Iran an excuse by attacking its oil bases.

The gas plant of Qatar which was attacked by Iran is the axis of its gas production. That is why Iran was hit where it hurts the most. The damage caused to Qatar’s gas plant due to Iran’s attacks will take a long time to repair and the impact of this crisis will be visible across the world. Now the question is who is responsible for this crisis? Iran claims that America has put the whole world in trouble, now Trump will have to suffer the consequences. But Trump said on Wednesday that the root of all trouble is Israel, Israel targeted Iran’s gas fields without asking him.

Trump’s attitude is surprising because a day earlier when Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, Trump remained silent. But when Iran retaliated against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Emirates, Trump realized the seriousness of the situation and said that Israel had done a very wrong thing by attacking Iran’s gas fields without informing America. Trump threatened Iran and said that if Iran attacks Qatar’s gas fields again, America will destroy all Iran’s oil and gas bases.

Trump wrote all these things on social media. Shortly after this, Israeli and American media claimed that Trump was lying, that Trump was fully aware that Israel was going to attack Iran’s gas fields. Before the attack on South Pars gas field, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had talked to Trump, taking him into confidence, Israel attacked Iran’s gas field. Trump’s statement that Israel attacked Iran’s gas fields without informing him shows that there is a rift and distrust between America and Israel. One of the two is misleading the world. The countries of the Middle East were already saying that Trump attacked Iran at the behest of Israel, but now both of them are busy dodging each other.

The countries of the Middle East have always been dependent on America for their security, but Iran’s attacks proved that America cannot provide them 100 percent security cover. Iran has made the Strait of Hormuz a big weapon but European countries are not ready to support Trump to remove the blockade in Hormuz. This is yet another crackdown standing in Trump’s way. All these things indicate that threatening Iran now will not work. Now the only way out will be to bring Iran to the negotiation table through a ceasefire.

The fire of this war has now started burning even those countries which have nothing to do with this war. (Rajat Sharma)

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